Jonathan Thaxton v Juan Carlos Diaz Melero

Norwich’s Thaxton 33-8(18) goes for his second shot at the European lightweight title tonight. He’s on home soil against Spaniard Melero 36-1(19).

Thaxton, 34, lost to EBU champ Yuri Romanov in April in a 6th round stoppage (cuts) and hasn’t fought since. Romanov has now vacated the title in order to concentrate on a world title tilt.

Thaxton’s opponent Melero, two years younger than Jono and slightly taller, has a solitary loss on his record. That was again at the hands of Romanov. Melero suffered a 3rd round KO but, unlike Thaxton, was beating Romanov on the scorecards up to the time of the stoppage.

Melero’s record has a lot of padding, but his best win – an 11th round TKO over evergreen campaigner Stefano Zoff – indicates the Spaniard is a capable operator at European level.

Although Thaxton was unbeaten in 12 fights going into the fight with Romanov, his oppposition was domestic level. Coming into another European-level fight straight after the loss to Romanov (Melero has racked up five victories since his defeat) leaves question marks about his ability to cope with this fight at this time.

In saying that, the fight, on paper at any rate, is a close one. Boxrec rank Thaxton ahead of Melero (#22 v #35) although the IBO’s computerised rankings have Melero at #22 and Thaxton down at #54.

Although a Thaxton win would likely set up an intriguing all-British fight with Amir Khan who, like Thaxton, is now faced with rebuilding his career, partisanship aside Melero may well have enough tools to deal with Thaxton at this point in their respective careers.

Anything odds-against on Melero is worth taking, and a stoppage might well be worth a flutter too.

Recommendation:

Melero outright 6/5 with William Hill 2pts

Melero rounds 7-9 11/1 with Bet365 1/2pt

James De la Rosa v Tim Coleman

20 year old De la Rosa 17-0(12) takes on fellow unbeaten Tim Coleman 14-0-1(3) in Maryland in the early hours of Saturday morning. The fight headlines a Duva-promoted Showtime card, and is also being screened by Eurosport.

De la Rosa, a Mexican now resident in Texas, is ranked #54 by boxrec at light middleweight, and has a pretty good KO ratio.  Those he hasn’t KO’d have been on the receiving end of near shut-outs on the scorecards in many cases.

Coleman meanwhile (boxrec’s #126) has just 3 knockouts from his 14 wins, and in his last outing drew with Martinus Clay, a tricky journeyman, but one who’s record is littered by defeats. Maybe the Clay fight came too early for Coleman, but 10 months out won’t have done him much good.

Although Coleman has home advantage, all other indicators point to a win for De la Rosa, who seems to have more promise about him and is open to improvement.

Bet365 give a decent price for the outright win, although you may want to have a fun punt on the Under 9.5 rounds at 7/4 given De la Rosa’s power at this level.

 Recommendation:

De la Rosa outright 3/10 with Bet365 2pts

Andreas Kotelnik v Norio Kimura

Th Ukrainian Kotelnik 29-2-1(13) makes the first defence of his WBA light welterweight title against Japanese Kimura 34-5-2(18) on home soil tonight (Saturday 13 September).

Kotelnik is a competent boxer, and wrested the belt from previously unbeaten Welshmen Gavin Rees in the latter’s home country back in March. He will not be in the mood to relinquish his belt in front of his home fans.

Kimura is unbeaten since 2002, although has only fought domestic (though decent) competition in recent times. Nevertheless, he has a decent #15 ranking with boxrec (Kotelnik is #7) but will surely have to show something a bit special in order to take the title in front of a patriotic Ukrainian crowd.

It’s no surprise to see Kotelnik at 1/7 outright, although it’s not worth a bet at that price given Kimura’s unbeaten streak. Better to go with the 2/7 on offer for the overs. Neither Kotelnik or Kimura has ever been knocked out, and neither is a huge puncher to boot.

Recommendation:

Over 9.5 rounds: 2/7 with Bet365 2.5pts

Amir Khan v Breidis Prescott

Bolton boy Khan 18-0(14) makes his PPV debut on Sky this Saturday (6th September) against little-known Columbian Breidis Prescott 19-0(17). 

Quickly dubbed ”two jabs” by boxing fans in a reference to his heavyweight namesake, Prescott’s record may look impressive, but the vast majority of his opponents are extremely poor.

We know that Khan’s chin may be a worry when he steps up the class of opposition (he was dropped by Michael Gomez last time out – the third time he’s touched the canvas in his career) but Prescott’s KO ratio is flattering. When he stepped up in his last fight (against an opponent 10-0-1) he was taken the distance. Given Khan’s speed and his reported commitment to tightening up his defensive skills in training, a general 10/1 is not brilliant for Prescott to win by KO.

The only choice to make is how Khan will win. There seems little value in going with Khan by KO at a bet price of 1/6 given Prescott has never seemingly been knocked down.  Prescott is also matching Khan for height, which may help him cope with the onslaught, but the danger is the referee will stop the fight due to the gulf in class.

Recommendation:

Amir Khan by decision 9/1 with sportingbet 1pt

Amir Khan in rounds 10-12 14/1 with bet365 1/2 pt