Jonathan Thaxton v Juan Carlos Diaz Melero

Norwich’s Thaxton 33-8(18) goes for his second shot at the European lightweight title tonight. He’s on home soil against Spaniard Melero 36-1(19).

Thaxton, 34, lost to EBU champ Yuri Romanov in April in a 6th round stoppage (cuts) and hasn’t fought since. Romanov has now vacated the title in order to concentrate on a world title tilt.

Thaxton’s opponent Melero, two years younger than Jono and slightly taller, has a solitary loss on his record. That was again at the hands of Romanov. Melero suffered a 3rd round KO but, unlike Thaxton, was beating Romanov on the scorecards up to the time of the stoppage.

Melero’s record has a lot of padding, but his best win – an 11th round TKO over evergreen campaigner Stefano Zoff – indicates the Spaniard is a capable operator at European level.

Although Thaxton was unbeaten in 12 fights going into the fight with Romanov, his oppposition was domestic level. Coming into another European-level fight straight after the loss to Romanov (Melero has racked up five victories since his defeat) leaves question marks about his ability to cope with this fight at this time.

In saying that, the fight, on paper at any rate, is a close one. Boxrec rank Thaxton ahead of Melero (#22 v #35) although the IBO’s computerised rankings have Melero at #22 and Thaxton down at #54.

Although a Thaxton win would likely set up an intriguing all-British fight with Amir Khan who, like Thaxton, is now faced with rebuilding his career, partisanship aside Melero may well have enough tools to deal with Thaxton at this point in their respective careers.

Anything odds-against on Melero is worth taking, and a stoppage might well be worth a flutter too.

Recommendation:

Melero outright 6/5 with William Hill 2pts

Melero rounds 7-9 11/1 with Bet365 1/2pt

James De la Rosa v Tim Coleman

20 year old De la Rosa 17-0(12) takes on fellow unbeaten Tim Coleman 14-0-1(3) in Maryland in the early hours of Saturday morning. The fight headlines a Duva-promoted Showtime card, and is also being screened by Eurosport.

De la Rosa, a Mexican now resident in Texas, is ranked #54 by boxrec at light middleweight, and has a pretty good KO ratio.  Those he hasn’t KO’d have been on the receiving end of near shut-outs on the scorecards in many cases.

Coleman meanwhile (boxrec’s #126) has just 3 knockouts from his 14 wins, and in his last outing drew with Martinus Clay, a tricky journeyman, but one who’s record is littered by defeats. Maybe the Clay fight came too early for Coleman, but 10 months out won’t have done him much good.

Although Coleman has home advantage, all other indicators point to a win for De la Rosa, who seems to have more promise about him and is open to improvement.

Bet365 give a decent price for the outright win, although you may want to have a fun punt on the Under 9.5 rounds at 7/4 given De la Rosa’s power at this level.

 Recommendation:

De la Rosa outright 3/10 with Bet365 2pts

Andre Berto v Steve Forbes

Berto 22-0(19) has brutally KOd his way into this WBC welterweight title fight, stopping all but three of his opponents to date. Two of the which went the distance were only 4-rounders, and in the other, against Cosme Rivera, Berto was down himself in the 6th round. Rivera by the way, had only been stopped once in ten defeats going into the fight.

In his last two fights, Berto stopped Miguel Rodriguez and Michel Trabant, neither of whom had been stopped before.

Berto has some serious pop. His opponent, fellow American Forbes 33-6(9) is best known for his stint on The Contender and more recently as an Oscar De La Hoya warm-up opponent. Forbes is in fact 1-3 in his last four fights, and how he merits a title shot is a little unclear.

Anyway, the winner of this fight is in very little doubt. The question is, will Forbes, who despite six career losses has yet to be stopped, be able to go the distance with Berto?

At a best-priced 8/13 to win by decision (with Bet365) Berto’s power may have been underestimated. 33/1 is available on Berto to win from round 3 onwards (with 40/1 available on both rounds 1 and 2) and this seems the better value route to take. Dutching rounds 3 and up pays nearly 5/2 but given Forbes’s solid chin we’ve gone from the mid rounds.

Recommendation:

Berto in rounds 6,7,8,9,10,11,12 7/2* with Boyelsports and BetFred 1pt

* based on dutching rounds 6,7,8,9,10,11,12 to a total of 1pt (20% of bank) For instance, if bank is £500, 1pt=£100. £14.30 is placed on each of rounds 6-12 at 33/1. The winning round pays 14.3*33 which equals £471.90, and a total of £486.20 once stake is returned. For a total outlay of £100, this returns effective odds of just over 7/2

Denis Inkin v Fulgencio Zuniga

On a big card in Germany tonight, the unbeaten Inkin 33-0(24) takes on Columbian Zuniga for the WBO supermiddleweight strap vacated by Joe Calzaghe.

Russian-born Inkin has been waiting for a title shot for sometime, although pulled out of a WBC showdown with the UK’s Carl Froch, citing injury. Inkin was dropped by little-known Argentine Martin Bruer in November.

Zuniga meanwhile was stopped by middleweight champ Kelly Pavlik back in 2005 (at 160lb) and two years before that had lost a WBO light-middle title fight against Daniel Santos. But since moving up to 168lb, Zuniga has put together three victories, with gatekeeper Antwun Echols and previously unbeaten Victor Oganov.   

You feel though that Zuniga will be far from out-classed tonight given recent form, but he will get no favours from the judges.

An close decision for Inkin is probably, in which case 6/4 is a very fair price. Meanwhile 28/1 and above is offered on a late round betting for Zuniga.

Recommendation:

Inkin by decision: 6/4 with StanJames 2pts

Zuniga in rounds 9,10,11,12 7/1* with StanJames 1/2pt

* 7/1 is based on dutching the four rounds, each at a price of 28/1, with the exception of round 12, which is priced at 33/1 with SJ

Andreas Kotelnik v Norio Kimura

Th Ukrainian Kotelnik 29-2-1(13) makes the first defence of his WBA light welterweight title against Japanese Kimura 34-5-2(18) on home soil tonight (Saturday 13 September).

Kotelnik is a competent boxer, and wrested the belt from previously unbeaten Welshmen Gavin Rees in the latter’s home country back in March. He will not be in the mood to relinquish his belt in front of his home fans.

Kimura is unbeaten since 2002, although has only fought domestic (though decent) competition in recent times. Nevertheless, he has a decent #15 ranking with boxrec (Kotelnik is #7) but will surely have to show something a bit special in order to take the title in front of a patriotic Ukrainian crowd.

It’s no surprise to see Kotelnik at 1/7 outright, although it’s not worth a bet at that price given Kimura’s unbeaten streak. Better to go with the 2/7 on offer for the overs. Neither Kotelnik or Kimura has ever been knocked out, and neither is a huge puncher to boot.

Recommendation:

Over 9.5 rounds: 2/7 with Bet365 2.5pts

Khan/Prescott, Arthur/Cook Results & Analysis

A night of upsets at the MEN. Khan lost by KO 1st, Arthur lost to Cook by unanimous decision. Analysis up on the fledgling forum, along with a video of the Khan KO:

http://boxingbets.motionforum.net/forum.htm

Alex Arthur v Nicky Cook

Edinburgh man Arthur 26-1(19) makes the first defence of the WBO superfeatherweight title on Saturday night (6th September) in Manchester. He takes on Dagenham’s Nicky Cook 28-1(16).

Hibs fan Arthur had a tough night when he took on Stephen Foster last December, and you wonder how strong he will be coming in at 130lb once again. He has been known to have a tough time making the weight, and is expected to move up to lightweight sooner rather than later.

Cook meanwhile looked better at superfeatherweight after his campaign at feather ended last Summer when he lost a WBO world title bid to American Steven Lueveno in the 11th round.   

Both Arthur and Cook are past European champions (Arthur at 130lb, Cook at 126) and should produce a good hard battle. Arthur looks too short at 2/7, so Cook looks a worthwhile punt at 10/3, and Ladbrokes have put up some huge prices on him winning inside the distance.

Recommendation:

Cook outright: 10/3 with WilliamHill 2pts

Cook in rounds 10-12 40/1 with Ladbrokes 1pt

Amir Khan v Breidis Prescott

Bolton boy Khan 18-0(14) makes his PPV debut on Sky this Saturday (6th September) against little-known Columbian Breidis Prescott 19-0(17). 

Quickly dubbed ”two jabs” by boxing fans in a reference to his heavyweight namesake, Prescott’s record may look impressive, but the vast majority of his opponents are extremely poor.

We know that Khan’s chin may be a worry when he steps up the class of opposition (he was dropped by Michael Gomez last time out – the third time he’s touched the canvas in his career) but Prescott’s KO ratio is flattering. When he stepped up in his last fight (against an opponent 10-0-1) he was taken the distance. Given Khan’s speed and his reported commitment to tightening up his defensive skills in training, a general 10/1 is not brilliant for Prescott to win by KO.

The only choice to make is how Khan will win. There seems little value in going with Khan by KO at a bet price of 1/6 given Prescott has never seemingly been knocked down.  Prescott is also matching Khan for height, which may help him cope with the onslaught, but the danger is the referee will stop the fight due to the gulf in class.

Recommendation:

Amir Khan by decision 9/1 with sportingbet 1pt

Amir Khan in rounds 10-12 14/1 with bet365 1/2 pt